Our new cannabis tax revenue estimates are similar to the revenues anticipated by the 2024-25 budget package.
Our new forecast for 2023-24 cannabis excise tax revenue is $649 million, slightly below the May Revision forecast of $665 million.
Our new forecast for 2023-24 cannabis retail excise tax revenue is $675 million, very close to the January Governor’s Budget forecast of $660 million.
Our new forecast for 2023-24 cannabis retail excise tax revenue: $702 million. This is $206 million above the budget package assumption.
The 2023-24 budget package anticipated a funding shortfall for programs supported by cannabis tax revenues. Our new revenue estimates are higher, yielding a smaller funding shortfall.
The May Revision anticipates a funding shortfall for programs supported by cannabis tax revenues. Our new revenue estimates are slightly higher, yielding a slightly smaller funding shortfall. Specifically, our estimate for 2022-23 cannabis retail excise tax revenue is $509 million. This is $24 million above the administration’s May Revision estimate but $133 million below the January Governor’s Budget estimate.
Revenue from the cannabis retail excise tax has declined for six straight quarters.
Cannabis tax revenues have declined for five straight quarters. One part of last quarter’s revenue decline is the lost revenue from the recently eliminated cultivation tax. Despite this policy change, revenues from the retail excise tax declined faster than ever before, indicating that other factors continue to drive down revenues.
Cannabis tax revenues have declined substantially for three straight quarters.
Preliminary cannabis tax revenue for 3rd quarter of 2021-22: $189 million.
Preliminary cannabis tax revenue for 2nd quarter of 2021-22: $196 million. Over the past year, cannabis tax revenue has grown much more slowly than it did previously.
Preliminary cannabis tax revenue for 1st quarter of 2021-22: $211 million.
Preliminary tally of 2020-21 cannabis tax revenue: $817 million.
The administration currently estimates that retail excise tax revenue was $132 million and cultivation tax revenue was $31 million in the third quarter of fiscal year 2020-21 (January through March).
Preliminary summer data and revised spring data show very strong growth in cannabis tax revenue.