Updated "Big Three" Revenue Outlook September 15, 2023

Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, our current forecast suggests there is upside potential for state revenues relative to the 2023 Budget Act projections.

• Brian Uhler
• Seth Kerstein
• Bidusha Mudbhari
• Chas Alamo

Early Data Revision Suggests Weaker Jobs Figures September 15, 2023

A newly released "early benchmark" of the official state jobs figures shows that payroll jobs declined at an annualized rate of 0.6 percent from September 2022 through March 2023, whereas the official state tally showed growth of 1.8 percent over that period. This amounts to a net decline of about 50k jobs over that period compared to the unbenched tally of +165k jobs. 

Monthly Jobs Report September 15, 2023

California businesses added 23,100 jobs in August. The July jobs figures were revised downward about 20,000 jobs, from 28k to 9k. The state's unemployment rate remained 4.6 percent, despite three months now of relatively slow job growth. 

• Chas Alamo

U.S. Retail Sales Update: August 2023 September 14, 2023

U.S. retail sales have grown 1.2 percent over the last 3 months and 2.5 percent over the last 12 months. Retail sales growth has outpaced inflation over the last 3 months, but not over the last 12 months.

• Seth Kerstein

Inflation Tracker September 13, 2023

Most measures of underlying inflation continue to decline, but there was a signficant increase in energy prices in August. 

• Ross Brown

Income Tax Withholding Tracker September 7, 2023

August PIT withholding came in $367 million (5 percent) above projections included in the 2023-24 Budget Act. For the fiscal year so far, PIT withholding is on track with the Budget Act projections and running about 1 percent lower than the same period last year.

• Chas Alamo

Cannabis Tax Revenue Update August 30, 2023

The 2023-24 budget package anticipated a funding shortfall for programs supported by cannabis tax revenues. Our new revenue estimates are higher, yielding a smaller funding shortfall.

• Seth Kerstein

U.S. Retail Sales Update: June 2022 July 18, 2023

U.S. retail sales have grown 1.1 percent over the last 3 months and 1.5 percent over the last 12 months. Retail sales growth has outpaced inflation over the last 3 months, but not over the last 12 months.

• Seth Kerstein

New Unemployment Insurance Fund Forecast Shows Imbalance July 7, 2023

The administration's recent Unemployment Insurance (UI) Trust Fund forecast shows that UI benefit payments will exceed state payroll tax contributions by $1.1 billion in 2023. Historically, benefit payments have only exceeded contributions during major economic downturns. For the first time, the fund is expected to be out of balance during a period of job growth.

• Chas Alamo

U.S. Retail Sales Update: May 2023 June 15, 2023

U.S. retail sales have been roughly flat (0.2 percent decline) over the last 3 months and grown 1.6 percent over the last 12 months. 

• Seth Kerstein

Cannabis Tax Revenue Update: May 2023 May 23, 2023

The May Revision anticipates a funding shortfall for programs supported by cannabis tax revenues. Our new revenue estimates are slightly higher, yielding a slightly smaller funding shortfall. Specifically, our estimate for 2022-23 cannabis retail excise tax revenue is $509 million. This is $24 million above the administration’s May Revision estimate but $133 million below the January Governor’s Budget estimate.

• Seth Kerstein

U.S. Retail Sales Update: April 2023 May 16, 2023

U.S. retail sales have dropped 0.9 percent over the last 3 months and grown 1.6 percent over the last 12 months. 

• Seth Kerstein

The 2023-24 Budget: May Revenue Outlook May 13, 2023

We discuss our May revenue outlook. 

• Brian Uhler
• Seth Kerstein
• Chas Alamo

U.S. Retail Sales Update: March 2023 April 14, 2023

U.S. retail sales have grown 1.9 percent over the last 3 months and 2.9 percent over the last 12 months. Sales have grown faster than inflation over the last 3 months but slower than inflation over the last 12.

• Seth Kerstein

Updated 2022-23 "Big Three" Revenue Outlook March 15, 2023

Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently estimate that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes—personal income, sales, and corporation taxes—are likely to fall below the Governor's Budget assumption of $200 billion in 2022-23. 

• Brian Uhler