We examine historical patterns of financial markets to gauge the range of possible outcomes for capital gains revenue in 2018-19 and beyond.
We examine historical patterns of financial markets to gauge the range of possible outcomes for capital gains revenue in 2018-19 and 2019-20.
We discuss our method for estimating capital gains revenue.
We display the administration's estimates for this revenue source as of January 2017.
We discuss the administration's 2016 May Revision capital gains estimates, as well as our office's.
We display the administration's Proposition 30 revenue estimates, as of the 2016 May Revision, as well as our office's estimates.
We discuss the ways that economic assumptions affect state budget analyses and how policy makers and others should consider these assumptions.
We discuss the distinctions between our personal income and personal income tax projections.
We answer some questions we receive about California's budget and the stock market downturn of recent days.
Our office's May Revision revenue outlook anticipates billions of dollars of additional revenues in 2015-16, compared to the administration's updated projections.
The Franchise Tax Board has posted its spring "exhibit" data, which contains information used by our office and the administration to understand state income tax collections.
A recent report on Silicon Valley discusses the region's economic growth. We consider the role that Silicon Valley, San Francisco, and Marin play in California's main state government revenue source, the personal income tax.
Proposition 2, passed by voters in November 2014, includes provisions intended to help manage state budget revenue volatility, principally by requiring certain state revenues to be deposited in budget reserves.
The state government's largest revenue source, the personal income tax, is much more volatile than "personal income," one key economic statistic that measures the overall size of the economy.
In 2012, for perhaps the first time in state history, the top 1% of the state's tax filers paid slightly over half of the state's personal income taxes.