Updated "Big Three" Revenue Outlook December 1, 2023

With the recent receipt of various postponed tax payments, the impact of recent economic weakness and last year's financial market distress on state revenues has become clearer. The postponed payments came in much weaker than anticipated. As a result, we now estimate 2022-23 revenues to be $26 billion below Budget Act projections. Historical experience suggests this weakness is likely to carry into this fiscal year and next. Overall, our updated revenue outlook anticipates collections to come in $58 billion below Budget Act projections across 2022-23 to 2024-25. We will release our Fiscal Outlook next week, which will discuss the ramifications of this revenue shortfall for the state's budget. 

Cannabis Tax Revenue Update: November 2023 November 30, 2023

Our new forecast for 2023-24 cannabis retail excise tax revenue: $702 million. This is $206 million above the budget package assumption.

Income Tax Withholding Tracker November 1, 2023

October PIT withholding came in $152 million (2 percent) above projections included in the 2023-24 Budget Act. For the fiscal year so far, PIT withholding has leveled off from its recent downturn and is in-line budget projections. 

Cannabis Tax Revenue Update August 30, 2023

The 2023-24 budget package anticipated a funding shortfall for programs supported by cannabis tax revenues. Our new revenue estimates are higher, yielding a smaller funding shortfall.

Cannabis Tax Revenue Update: May 2023 May 23, 2023

The May Revision anticipates a funding shortfall for programs supported by cannabis tax revenues. Our new revenue estimates are slightly higher, yielding a slightly smaller funding shortfall. Specifically, our estimate for 2022-23 cannabis retail excise tax revenue is $509 million. This is $24 million above the administration’s May Revision estimate but $133 million below the January Governor’s Budget estimate.

The 2023-24 Budget: May Revenue Outlook May 13, 2023

We discuss our May revenue outlook. 

Updated 2022-23 "Big Three" Revenue Outlook March 15, 2023

Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently estimate that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes—personal income, sales, and corporation taxes—are likely to fall below the Governor's Budget assumption of $200 billion in 2022-23. 

Cannabis Tax Revenue Update February 22, 2023

Revenue from the cannabis retail excise tax has declined for six straight quarters. 

November 2022 Cap-and-Trade Auction Update December 14, 2022

Based on the preliminary results, the state will receive an estimated $961 million in revenue from the most recent quarterly cap-and-trade auction held on November 16, 2022. 

Cannabis Tax Revenue Update November 18, 2022

Cannabis tax revenues have declined for five straight quarters. One part of last quarter’s revenue decline is the lost revenue from the recently eliminated cultivation tax. Despite this policy change, revenues from the retail excise tax declined faster than ever before, indicating that other factors continue to drive down revenues. 

October Tax Collections November 17, 2022

Although October colletions from the state's “big three” tax revenues—personal income, corporation, and sales taxes—came in far ahead of Budget Act assumptions, this is not indicative of better than expected revenue performance for 2022-23 overall. Instead, a closer look at the data shows that the recent trend of revenue weakness continued in October. 

Income Tax Witholding Tracker: August 2022 September 1, 2022

August state income tax withholding was down $450 million (6.1 percent) compared to last year. 

Cannabis Tax Revenue Update August 22, 2022

Cannabis tax revenues have declined substantially for three straight quarters. 

Income Tax Witholding Tracker: July 2022 August 5, 2022

California income tax withholding collections were $90 million (1 percent) lower in July compared to last year.

Income Tax Withholding Tracker: June 2022 July 11, 2022

California income tax collections were down 2 percent in June relative to last year.