April PIT withholding came in $705 million (7 percent) below projections included in the recently released Governor's Budget. Since the Governor's Budget projections were released in January, withholding is $2.9 billion (8 percent) below the administration's projections. For the fiscal year so far, withholding is running 4.5 percent lower than last year, with most of the weakness coming in November and December of last year.
Although October colletions from the state's “big three” tax revenues—personal income, corporation, and sales taxes—came in far ahead of Budget Act assumptions, this is not indicative of better than expected revenue performance for 2022-23 overall. Instead, a closer look at the data shows that the recent trend of revenue weakness continued in October.
August state income tax withholding was down $450 million (6.1 percent) compared to last year.
New IRS data on taxpayer migration during the first year of the pandemic shows an uptick of movement between California and other states, as well as within California.
California income tax withholding collections were $90 million (1 percent) lower in July compared to last year.
California income tax collections were down 2 percent in June relative to last year.
California income tax withholding collections in November were up nearly a third over last November.
California income tax withholding in October was up 8.2 percent over October 2020, a slower growth rate than in the three previous months.
The California income tax withholding surge continues, as September collections to date are 23.5 percent above last September.
Through the first two months of the 2021-22 fiscal year, collections from the state’s three largest taxes are running 20 percent ($3.6 billion) ahead of budget projections.
California income tax withholding remained very strong in August, coming in nearly 20 percent above August 2020.
California income tax withholding continues to surge, as June collections to date are nearly 25 percent above last June.
The state's surprisingly strong growth in income tax withholding has been led by high-tech sectors, but many other sectors are showing big gains as well.
California income tax withholding in May was 29.4 percent above last May, when serious pandemic restrictions were in effect.
This post provides commentary on our May Outlook revenues.