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California Economy and Taxes
 
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Updated "Big Three" Revenue Outlook December 1, 2023

With the recent receipt of various postponed tax payments, the impact of recent economic weakness and last year's financial market distress on state revenues has become clearer. The postponed payments came in much weaker than anticipated. As a result, we now estimate 2022-23 revenues to be $26 billion below Budget Act projections. Historical experience suggests this weakness is likely to carry into this fiscal year and next. Overall, our updated revenue outlook anticipates collections to come in $58 billion below Budget Act projections across 2022-23 to 2024-25. We will release our Fiscal Outlook next week, which will discuss the ramifications of this revenue shortfall for the state's budget. 

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How Does Tech Company Equity Pay Affect Income Tax Withholding? November 16, 2023

California's technology companies, including giants like Apple, Google, Nvidia, and Meta, are some of the most valuable companies in the world and support thousands of high-paying jobs in the state. Many employees at these companies receive equity pay, such as stock options, as part of their compensation. State income tax withholding on this equity pay has grown notably, reaching 6 percent in the last few years. The recent jump in these companies' stock prices, which affects withholding on equity pay, has bolstered otherwise weak income tax withholding during 2023.

Thumbnail for The 2023-24 Budget: May Revenue Outlook

The 2023-24 Budget: May Revenue Outlook May 13, 2023

We discuss our May revenue outlook. 

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Updated 2022-23 "Big Three" Revenue Outlook March 15, 2023

Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently estimate that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes—personal income, sales, and corporation taxes—are likely to fall below the Governor's Budget assumption of $200 billion in 2022-23. 

October Tax Collections November 17, 2022

Although October colletions from the state's “big three” tax revenues—personal income, corporation, and sales taxes—came in far ahead of Budget Act assumptions, this is not indicative of better than expected revenue performance for 2022-23 overall. Instead, a closer look at the data shows that the recent trend of revenue weakness continued in October. 

Thumbnail for Income Tax Witholding Tracker: August 2022

Income Tax Witholding Tracker: August 2022 September 1, 2022

August state income tax withholding was down $450 million (6.1 percent) compared to last year. 

Thumbnail for The 2022-23 Budget: May Revenue Outlook

The 2022-23 Budget: May Revenue Outlook May 16, 2022

We discuss our May revenue outlook. 

Thumbnail for 2021-22 “Big Three” Revenue Outlook Update: March 2022

2021-22 “Big Three” Revenue Outlook Update: March 2022 March 28, 2022

Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently project that there is a very good chance that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes will exceed the Governor's Budget assumption of $185 billion in 2021-22 by at least several billion dollars. 

Thumbnail for 2021-22 “Big Three” Revenue Outlook Update: February 2022

2021-22 “Big Three” Revenue Outlook Update: February 2022 February 17, 2022

Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently project that there is a very good chance that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes will exceed the Governor's Budget assumption of $185 billion in 2021-22 by at least several billion dollars. 

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2021-22 “Big Three” Revenue Outlook Update: January 2022 January 21, 2022

Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently project that there is a strong chance that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes will exceed the Governor's Budget assumption of $185 billion in 2021-22. 

Thumbnail for Income Tax Withholding Tracker: November 1 - November 30

Income Tax Withholding Tracker: November 1 - November 30 November 30, 2021

California income tax withholding collections in November were up nearly a third over last November.

Thumbnail for 2022-23 Fiscal Outlook Revenue Estimates

2022-23 Fiscal Outlook Revenue Estimates November 17, 2021

We discuss the revenue estimates in our recently released Fiscal Outlook. 

Thumbnail for Income Tax Withholding Tracker: October 1 - October 31

Income Tax Withholding Tracker: October 1 - October 31 November 3, 2021

California income tax withholding in October was up 8.2 percent over October 2020, a slower growth rate than in the three previous months.

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2021-22 “Big Three” Revenue Outlook Update: October 2021 October 22, 2021

Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently project that there is a good chance that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes will exceed the budget act assumption of $170 billion in 2021-22 by at least several billion dollars. 

Thumbnail for Income Tax Withholding Tracker: September 1 - September 24

Income Tax Withholding Tracker: September 1 - September 24 September 24, 2021

The California income tax withholding surge continues, as September collections to date are 23.5 percent above last September.