December data for the US show annual inflation remained above pre-pandemic averages with the downward trend seen since mid-2022 stalling. While a lapse in appropriations for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) during October and November 2025 led to concerns about the accuracy of November and December inflation statistics, estimates suggest similar inflation levels to previous months. Between December 2024 and December 2025, prices for US consumers grew by 2.7% and prices for CA consumers grew by 3.2%. However, it is likely that wage growth exceeded inflation in 2025. Growth in the price of consumer goods seen in early and mid-2025 has largely reversed, with goods prices falling slightly between January 2025 and January 2026. Consumer expectations about inflation in the next one to five years spiked in early 2025 but have since declined, nearly to pre-2025 levels.
Based on the most recent economic data, we now estimate that annual inflation will drop to about 4 percent by the second quarter of 2023.
We discuss our new economic outlook, released as part of our response to the Governor's 2017 May Revision.
We discuss the state's economic outlook, including the administration's assessment of the near-term economic outlook in the Governor's May Revision to his 2016-17 budget proposal.
A spike in gas prices contributed to Los Angeles-area consumer prices rising substantially faster than the nation as a whole in July, according to new federal data.
Consumer price index (CPI) data for all of 2014 is now available.
Inflation in the U.S. economy was very low in late 2014, and further drops in prices are possible in early 2015. We discuss both the risks and benefits of low price growth.