Our post provides an updated snapshot of housing affordability in California. Over the last few years, we have seen a rapid increase in California housing costs, driven by a dramatic increase in home prices and mortgage rates between 2020 and 2022. Home prices have stabilized since 2022: current prices are roughly the same as they would have been if trends pre-pandemic had continued. Despite this, fewer California households can afford to buy a home today than before 2020.
Prices are unlikely to decline if existing homeowners--or new builders--are unwilling to sell their homes at prices prospective buyers can afford. One factor is the rapid increase in mortgage rates in 2022. After the increase, most existing homeowners are "locked-in" to mortgages with rates significantly lower than currently available. About 77 percent of California homeowners have mortgage rates under 5 percent, compared to current rates of about 6.2 percent. These homeowners face a significant additional financial cost to moving, further limiting the number of homes available for sale. This dynamic may explain why home sales remain low despite an increase in the number of homes listed for sale in 2024 and early 2025.
California's housing market boomed during much of the pandemic, but it started to cool this spring. Over the last few months, sales prices and sales activity have declined notably.
California builders recorded 8,254 permits in September, the lowest figure since February.
California builders recorded 9,285 housing permits in August, in line with the recent average for the month.
California builders recorded 9,676 permits in July, 5 percent above the same month in 2020.
California builders recorded 10,685 housing permits in June, a so-so number for what is typically the biggest month of the year.
California recorded 9,291 housing permits in May, well below the totals of March and April.
California builders recorded nearly 11,000 housing permits in April, more than double last April's total.
California home prices continue to soar, and are now up 12.5 percent over the past 12 months.
The state recorded nearly 12,000 housing permits in March, and nonresidential permit activity was surprisingly high.
California housing permits came in somewhat below last February's total as multifamily permits slipped.
California builders recorded 9,288 housing permits in January, slightly above January 2020.
California recorded 11,611 housing permits in December, by far the biggest monthly total in 2020.
California recorded 8,368 housing permits in November, slightly above both the October level and the 2020 monthly average.
California recorded about 8,000 housing permits in October, with single units accounting for more than 70 percent of the total.