State Budget Condition Publications

To browse all LAO publications, visit our Publications page.


 




Brief

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

February 15, 2023 - This brief provides our current assessment of the scale of the coming budget problems under the Governor’s budget proposals. We also provide our guidance to the Legislature about how to address these shortfalls given current economic conditions.

Handout

The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Governor’s Budget (Assembly Handout)

February 8, 2023 - Presented to: Assembly Committee on Budget

Post

The 2023-24 Budget: State Appropriations Limit Estimates

February 1, 2023 - This post provides a brief summary of the administration’s state appropriations limit-related estimates under the Governor’s budget.

Handout

The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Governor’s Budget (Senate Handout)

January 18, 2023 - Presented to: Senate Committee on Budget and Fiscal Review

Report

The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

January 13, 2023 - On January 10, 2023, Governor Newsom presented his proposed state budget to the Legislature. In this report, we provide a brief summary of the proposed budget based on our initial review. In the coming weeks, we will analyze the plan in more detail and release several additional budget analyses.

Handout

How Program Spending Grew in Recent Years

January 5, 2023 - This handout explores how program spending increased since 2013-14. We focus on trends in spending since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Post

New Inflation Poses Not So New Budget Risk

December 15, 2022 - Persistent high inflation presents federal and state policymakers with an economic problem not seen in roughly four decades. In fact, during much of the past 15-year period, inflation not only was subdued, it consistently ran below the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed’s) target of 2 percent. Chronically below-target inflation eventually prompted the Fed in August 2020 to adjust its policy framework to combat this tendency. Not long after, however, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation trends and the Fed’s orientation to them began to reverse. Once it emerged, inflation accelerated throughout 2021 and has remained elevated this year with as yet indeterminate signs of abating.

Report

The 2023-24 Budget: Considering Inflation's Effects on State Programs

November 16, 2022 - This brief takes a case study approach to examine how elevated inflation has already impacted—and could continue to impact—state spending programs.

Report

The 2023-24 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

November 16, 2022 - Our annual Fiscal Outlook publication gives our office’s independent assessment of the California state budget condition for the upcoming fiscal year and over the longer term. In this report, we anticipate the state will have a $24 billion budget problem to solve in the upcoming fiscal year and operating deficits declining from $17 billion to $8 billion over the multiyear period. The goal of this report is to help the Legislature begin crafting the 2023‑24 budget. Our analysis relies on specific assumptions about the future of the state economy, its revenues, and its expenditures. Consequently, our estimates are not definitive, but rather reflect our best guidance to the Legislature based on our professional assessments as of November 2022.

Update (11/22/22): The original version of this report identified a $25 billion—instead of a $24 billion—budget problem, which reflected an error in the way we accounted for student housing grant program funding.

Report

The 2022-23 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

October 12, 2022 - Each year, our office publishes the California Spending Plan to summarize the annual state budget. This publication provides an overview of the 2022-23 Budget Act, gives a brief description of how the budget process unfolded, and then highlights major features of the budget approved by the Legislature and signed by the Governor.

Post

The 2022-23 California Spending Plan: The State Appropriations Limit

September 30, 2022 - This post describes the legislative and administrative decisions regarding the State Appropriations Limit (SAL) in the 2022‑23 budget process.

Report

The 2022-23 Budget: California Spending Plan Series

September 29, 2022 - Each year, our office publishes California Spending Plan, a series of publications that summarize the annual state budget. The Overview of the California Spending Plan is presented here along with short online posts that focus on major areas and features of the 2022-23 budget package. As more of these posts become available, we will add them below.

Report

Supplemental Report of the 2022-23 Budget Act

September 27, 2022 - The Supplemental Report of the 2022-23 Budget Act contains statements of legislative intent and requests for studies that were adopted by the Legislature during deliberations on the 2022-23 budget package.

Post

The 2022-23 California Spending Plan: Other Provisions

September 27, 2022 - This post discusses features of the state's spending plan that were not covered elsewhere in the 2022-23 Spending Plan series.

Handout

Budget Reserves

August 3, 2022 - Presented to: Assembly Budget Subcommittee No. 6 on Process, Oversight and Program Evaluation

State Budget Condition Staff

Ann Hollingshead
(916) 319-8305
State Budget and Federal Funding
 
Carolyn Chu
(916) 319-8326
Chief Deputy Legislative Analyst