Our estimates suggest that it is virtually certain that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes—personal income, sales, and corporation taxes—will significantly exceed the Governor’s Budget assumption of $185 billion in 2021-22. Currently, our best estimate is that there will be somewhere between $33 billion and $39 billion in unanticipated revenue.
U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) grew 0.5 percent from February to March.
Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently project that there is a very good chance that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes will exceed the Governor's Budget assumption of $185 billion in 2021-22 by at least several billion dollars.
February 2022 business formation data shows that new business creation is retuning to long-term average levels after growing at a faster pace in late 2020 and throughout 2021.
U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) grew 0.3 percent from January to February. Retail sales have been elevated after growing dramatically in early 2021, but inflation has offset much of the past year’s apparent “growth.”
Preliminary cannabis tax revenue for 2nd quarter of 2021-22: $196 million. Over the past year, cannabis tax revenue has grown much more slowly than it did previously.
Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently project that there is a very good chance that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes will exceed the Governor's Budget assumption of $185 billion in 2021-22 by at least several billion dollars.
U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) grew 3.8 percent from December to January. Retail sales have been elevated after growing dramatically in early 2021, but inflation has offset most of the past year’s apparent “growth.”
California employers added 50,700 net jobs in December, representing annualized growth of 3.6 percent.
Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently project that there is a strong chance that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes will exceed the Governor's Budget assumption of $185 billion in 2021-22.
U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) dropped 1.9 percent from November to December. Nonetheless, sales remained 17 percent above last December.
U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) grew 0.3 percent from October to November. Retail sales have been elevated throughout 2021 following dramatic growth in January and March.
California income tax withholding collections in November were up nearly a third over last November.
The pace of California home sales is slowing, although it remains high by historical standards.
Preliminary cannabis tax revenue for 1st quarter of 2021-22: $211 million.