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Monthly Jobs Report (August) September 18, 2026
August Jobs Gain Largest Since January, But New Estimates Suggest 2026 Growth Has Been Overstated. The preliminary monthly jobs report shows the state added 39,000 payroll jobs in August, the largest monthly gain since January. At the same time, early revisions that incorporate newly filed administrative records indicate the state added far fewer jobs in January, February, and March than previously reported. The household survey also tells a concerning story: since January, the number of Californians who are working has declined by more than 270,000 and the labor force has contracted by more than 360,000 workers. The state's unemployment rate has declined in recent months but largely because workers leaving the labor force are not counted as unemployed.
California New Car Registrations: July 2026 September 9, 2026
Registrations Declined in July. Seasonally adjusted new car registrations dropped 6 percent in July. Nevertheless, due to strong growth in May and June, registrations remain slightly higher than in the first few months of 2026.
Inflation Tracker August 20, 2026
July data for the US show prices stabilizing in June and July after a period of higher inflation from March through May. Between January and May 2026, prices for US consumers grew by 2.3% (a 5.5% annual rate). This is a much higher rate than the 2.6% annual growth in prices for US consumers in 2025. Since then, overall prices have remained about the same. Recent inflation increases reflect a sharp increase in global energy prices: consumer energy prices were 23% higher in May 2026 than they were a year earlier, before falling 7% in June and July. California data tell a similar story: between December 2025 and April 2026, California consumer prices grew at a 4.5% annual rate before stabilizing in June and July. Consumers do not expect increased inflation to last: unlike in early 2025, consumer expectations about inflation in the next five years increased only moderately in early 2026.
California New Car Registrations: June 2026 July 29, 2026
After Half-Year Slump, Strong Growth in May and June. Seasonally adjusted new car registrations dropped 8 percent from September 2025 to December 2025, then declined an additional 2 percent from December to April. Thanks to 10 percent growth from April to June, however, registrations have now fully recovered from the slump.
California Housing Affordability Tracker (2nd Quarter 2026) July 20, 2026
Our post provides an updated snapshot of housing affordability in California. Over the last few years, we have seen a rapid increase in California housing costs, driven by a dramatic increase in home prices and mortgage rates between 2020 and 2022. Home prices have stabilized since 2022: current prices are somewhat lower than they would have been if pre-pandemic trends had continued. Despite this, fewer California households can afford to buy a home today than before 2020.
Affordability is unlikely to improve if existing homeowners–or new builders–are unwilling to sell their homes at prices prospective buyers can afford following the rapid increase in mortgage rates in 2022. A complicating factor is that most existing homeowners are "locked-in" to mortgages with rates significantly lower than currently available. About 76 percent of California homeowners have mortgage rates under 5 percent, compared to current rates of about 6.5 percent. These homeowners face a significant additional financial cost to moving, further limiting the number of homes available for sale. This dynamic may explain why home sales remain low despite an increase in the number of homes listed for sale in 2024 and early 2025.
California New Car Registrations: May 2026 July 13, 2026
After Half-Year Slump, Strong Growth in May. Seasonally adjusted new car registrations dropped 8 percent from September 2025 to December 2025, then declined an additional 2 percent from December to April. In May, however, registrations grew nearly 7 percent—the strongest single month since December 2024.
California New Car Registrations: April 2026 June 4, 2026
Slump in Registrations Continued Through April. Seasonally adjusted new car registrations dropped 8 percent from September 2025 to December 2025. After this substantial drop, registrations have not yet recovered—in fact, they declined an additional 2 percent from December to April. This slump is becoming an increasingly worrisome sign for California’s short-term economic trajectory.
California New Car Registrations: March 2026 May 8, 2026
Slump in Registrations Continued Through March. Seasonally adjusted new car registrations dropped 8 percent from September 2025 to December 2025. After this substantial drop, registrations have not yet recovered—in fact, they declined an additional 1 percent from December to March. This slump is becoming an increasingly worrisome sign for California’s short-term economic trajectory.
Updated "Big Three" Revenue Outlook (May 2026) May 7, 2026
Revenues Are Surging but Appear Unsustainable. Our updated forecast of revenues from the state’s three largest taxes (income, corporation, and sales) shows a $25 billion upgrade over the Governor’s Budget across the budget window (prior year to budget year.) This upgraded outlook is almost entirely attributable to higher expectations for income tax collections, which are being driven by enthusiasm around AI and the related stock market boom. As such, we continue to caution that these surging revenues likely are not sustainable. This suggests it would be prudent to approach the state budget as if we are at or near a revenue peak.
California New Car Registrations: February 2026 April 7, 2026
Slump in Registrations Continued Through February. Seasonally adjusted new car registrations dropped 8 percent from September 2025 to December 2025. After growing just 1 percent from December to February, registrations are still 5 percent below the average level over the last couple of years. This slump is becoming an increasingly worrisome sign for California’s short-term economic trajectory.
California New Car Registrations: January 2026 March 11, 2026
Seasonally adjusted new car registrations dropped 8 percent from September 2025 to December 2025. After essentially moving sideways from December to January, registrations are still 5 percent below the average level over the last couple of years. This multi-month slump could be a worrisome sign for California’s short-term economic trajectory.
Updated "Big Three" Revenue Outlook February 20, 2026
Near-Term Revenue Outlook Improved but Future Challenges Remain. Our updated forecast anticipates revenues from the state’s three largest taxes (income, corporation, and sales) are likely to come in ahead of Governor’s Budget assumptions in the current year and about in line with assumptions in the budget year. This upgraded outlook is entirely attributable to higher expectations for income tax collections, which are being driven by enthusiasm around AI and the related stock market boom. As such, we continue to caution that these surging revenues likely are not sustainable. Our revenue outlook for 2027-28 and beyond remains similar to our November Fiscal Outlook, continuing to reflect the high risk of a revenue reversal. Under these revenues, our Fiscal Outlook estimated that the state would face structural deficits of around $35 billion annually starting in 2027-28.
California New Car Registrations: December 2025 February 9, 2026
Registrations Fell Slightly in December. Seasonally adjusted new car registrations declined by 1 percent in December. After three weak months, registrations are now 5 percent below the average level over the last couple of years.
California New Car Registrations: November 2025 January 6, 2026
Registrations Dropped in November. Seasonally adjusted new car registrations declined by 4 percent in November. After two weak months, registrations are now 4 percent below the average level over the last couple of years.
California New Car Registrations: October 2025 December 3, 2025
Registrations Dropped in October. Seasonally adjusted new car registrations declined by 2.4 percent in October. October registrations were 5 percent lower than recent peaks in December and April but slightly higher than the average level over the last couple of years.