Monthly Business Survey Has Recently Overestimated Job Gains. Beginning in 2022, the official monthly jobs survey of businesses has routinely overestimated job growth in the state. Once preliminary survey figures are finalized using comprehensive payroll records, the figures have been revised downward by an average of 30,000 jobs each month.
Monthly Household Survey Has Tracked Final Job Numbers More Closely. The monthly survey that federal officials use to estimate the unemployment rate asks household members if they are employed. During 2023, as shown in the figure below, preliminary data from the household survey more closely tracked the finalized monthly job gains.
Averaging the Two Surveys Offers a More Reliable Assessment of Labor Market. Until the difference between preliminary and revised jobs numbers returns to normal levels, averaging the monthly gains reported in the household and business surveys likely provides a more reliable real-time assessment of the state's labor markets. The figure below shows recent trends from this hybrid measure, which suggests the state added 20,000 jobs in June, slightly less than the 22,500 jobs reported in the preliminary report. The difference between the two surveys was minimal in June.