U.S. Retail Sales Update: August 2024 September 17, 2024
U.S. retail sales have grown 0.9 percent over the last 3 months and 2.1 percent over the last 12 months. Retail sales growth has outpaced inflation over the last 3 months, but not over the last 12 months.
Cannabis Tax Revenue Update (2024 Q2) September 4, 2024
Our new cannabis tax revenue estimates are similar to the revenues anticipated by the 2024-25 budget package.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: July 2024 August 16, 2024
U.S. retail sales have grown 1 percent over the last 3 months and 2.7 percent over the last 12 months. Retail sales growth has outpaced inflation over the last 3 months, but not over the last 12 months.
IRS Data Show Pandemic Uptick in Outmigration Continues July 31, 2024
Recently released figures from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) show that California continues to lose taxpayers to other states. The state has long had annual net outmigration (more people moving out of California to other states than moving in) but the trend has increased since 2020. Looking ahead, should the heightened trend of net outmigration continue, it could drag down annual income tax revenue growth below its long-term average.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: June 2024 July 16, 2024
U.S. retail sales have grown 0.1 percent over the last 3 months and 2.3 percent over the last 12 months. Over both periods, sales have grown more slowly than inflation.
California's Private-Sector Labor Market Showing Broad Weakness July 1, 2024
The state's modest job growth over the past two years is a tale of two labor markets. Hiring in public and publicly supported sectors has bouyed job losses in many of the state's high-paying private sectors. While job losses have hit California, nationally these private-sector industries are faring much better.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: May 2024 June 18, 2024
U.S. retail sales have grown 0.4 percent over the last 3 months and 2.3 percent over the last 12 months. Over both periods, sales have grown more slowly than inflation.
Newest Early Jobs Revision Shows No Net Job Growth During 2023 June 17, 2024
A newly released "early benchmark" of the official state jobs figures shows that payroll jobs declined by 32,000 from September 2023 through December 2023, whereas the official state tally showed growth of 117,000 jobs over that period. With the fourth quarter early revision, calendar year 2023 shows essentially no net job gains.
Cannabis Tax Revenue Update May 31, 2024
Our new forecast for 2023-24 cannabis excise tax revenue is $649 million, slightly below the May Revision forecast of $665 million.
The 2024-25 Budget: Temporary Corporation Tax Increases May 17, 2024
The May Revision proposes to temporarily increase corporation tax revenues by limiting the use of business tax credits and net operating loss deductions. This post analyzes those proposals. We think the proposal to limit use of tax credits is worth serious consideration. On the other hand, the proposal to limit net operating loss deductions raises concerns. In response, we suggest the Legislature consider alternative ways to raise revenue should it wish to pursue revenue solutions.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: March 2024 April 15, 2024
U.S. retail sales have grown 0.8 percent over the last 3 months and 4 percent over the last 12 months. Retail sales growth has outpaced inflation over the last 12 months, but not over the last 3 months.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: February 2024 March 14, 2024
U.S. retail sales have dropped 0.4 percent over the last 3 months and grown 1.5 percent over the last 12 months. The 12-month growth rate was below the rate of inflation.
Annual Revision Shows State Added Few Jobs Last Year March 13, 2024
Each year, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revises the state's jobs number to match actual payroll records from businesses. The latest revision lowered its count of California jobs by 1.5 percent. The corrected data show that the state added just 50,000 jobs between September 2022 and September 2023, while preliminary monthly reports had showed the labor market growing by more than 300,000 jobs.
The 2024-25 Budget: Property Tax Postponement Program February 29, 2024
The Governor proposes to use $7.5 million General Fund on a one-time basis to support the Property Tax Postponement (PTP) program. The PTP program has a structural deficit, very low participation, and relatively high administrative costs. We recommend the Legislature (1) direct the State Controller's Office to report at budget hearings to provide an update on the PTP program and (2) consider eliminating the program.
Overview of State Bond Debt Service February 27, 2024
We summarize state bonds, the state's current debt levels, and its annual debt service payments. In inflation-adjusted terms, total bond debt and annual debt service payments have declined over the last couple of decades. The share of the overall state General Fund budget going to debt service payments is less than 3 percent--also the lowest level in over 20 years. We project that the share of the General Fund budget going to debt service payments will remain relatively steady over the next few years.