New Governor's Budget Economic Forecast

Governor's 2015-16 Budget Proposal and the LAO's Initial Response. The Governor introduced his initial 2015-16 budget proposal on Friday, January 9. Our office released our initial take on the plan, the LAO's annual Overview of the Governor's Budget, today, January 13. Our Overview contains a brief discussion of some key economic issues facing the state as legislators begin to consider the Governor's plan, including the recent drop in oil prices and weakness in the international economic situation. Another key economic issue facing the state is housing, which we discussed in our November 2014 Fiscal Outlook.

Administration's New Economic Projections. In conjunction with the release of the Governor's proposal, the state Department of Finance has released the economic projections that underlie the administration's revenue and other projections. As we discuss in the Overview, the projections, by necessity, generally had to be completed before the sharp drop in oil prices during the last few weeks. The Governor's budget summary also includes a summary of his administration's economic outlook.

Below, the figure compares the administration's new January 2015 budget proposal economic projections, with those the administration prepared last May (and which were incorporated into the state's 2014-15 budget plan last June), as well as our office's November 2014 economic projections.

Next LAO and Administration Forecasts in May. Our office expects to release a new economic and revenue forecast in May, around the same time that the administration releases its May Revision forecast. In the meantime, we will continue to provide updates on the state's revenue and economic situation via this blog.