Staff
Chas Alamo
(916) 319-8357
Personal Income Tax, Employment, and Labor Law
Ann Hollingshead
(916) 319-8305
State Budget and Federal Funding
Nick Schroeder
(916) 319-8314
Public Employment, CalPERS, Elections, Veterans Affairs
Paul Steenhausen
(916) 319-8303
Local Government, Housing, and Homelessness
Brian Uhler
(916) 319-8328
Deputy Legislative Analyst: Economy, Taxes, and Labor
Alex Bentz
(916) 319-8312
Property Taxes, Bonds, and the Economy
Rowan Isaaks
(916) 319-8362
Corporation Tax and Economic Development
Seth Kerstein
(916) 319-8365
Sales and Excise Taxes and Demographics


Publications

Economy and Taxes

To browse all LAO publications, visit our Publications page.



Report

The 2017-18 Budget: Evaluating the State-County Assessors' Partnership Agreement Program

March 27, 2017 - The 2014-15 Budget Act established a three-year pilot program known as the State–County Assessors’ Partnership Agreement Program (SCAPAP). Under SCAPAP, the state allocated grants to eight county assessors’ offices to improve local administration of the property tax. In this report, we look at data from the first two years of SCAPAP and attempt to gauge the program’s effect on property tax revenues. Our analysis suggests the effect of SCAPAP on property taxes has been modest. There is even a good chance the state’s fiscal benefit from SCAPAP did not exceed state costs for the program.


Report

Do Communities Adequately Plan for Housing?

March 8, 2017 - In this report, we review the available evidence to gauge whether housing element law--the state's primary tool to ensure that local governments adequately plan for new housing--achieves their objective of ensuring that local communities accommodate future home building. Our review suggests that housing elements fall well short of their goal. Communities’ zoning rules often are out of sync with the types of projects developers desire to build and households desire to live in. As a result, home building lags behind demand. Although we offer a few changes the Legislature could consider, real improvement can come only with a major shift in how communities and their residents think about and value new housing.


Post

The 2017-18 Budget: The Board of Equalization

March 7, 2017 - In this analysis, we discuss three aspects of the State Board of Equalization’s (BOE’s) budget: (1) resources redirected to board members; (2) the administration’s 2017-18 budget proposal for BOE’s major IT project; and (3) the administration’s 2017-18 budget proposals for BOE’s tobacco tax and licensing programs.


Report

The 2017-18 Budget: Governor's Gann Limit Proposal

March 2, 2017 - Under the State Constitution, state tax revenues in excess of the Prop 4 (1979) state appropriations limit, or Gann Limit, must be split between taxpayer rebates and additional school spending. The Governor now proposes a new calculation methodology that creates $22 billion in additional state spending capacity. We find that the Governor's proposal violates the spirit of Proposition 4 and—in our view—is highly vulnerable to legal challenges. We recommend that the Legislature reject the proposal and offer options for legislative consideration.


Post

The 2017-18 Budget: California Competes Tax Credit

February 27, 2017 - In this analysis, we discuss our findings and recommendations regarding the Governor's proposals regarding the California Competes tax credit program. This affects two departments: (1) the Governor's Office of Business and Economic Development (GO-Biz) and (2) Franchise Tax Board.


Report

The 2017-18 Budget: An Overview of the Governor's Proposition 56 Proposals

February 22, 2017 - Proposition 56 was approved by voters in November 2016 to increase taxes on cigarettes and other tobacco products. Questions have been raised as to whether the Governor’s proposals for allocating Proposition 56 revenues meet the initiative’s requirement to supplement—and not supplant—existing spending in several areas. To examine these questions, we begin by reviewing the provisions of Proposition 56 and the Governor’s budget proposals. We then discuss whether the Governor’s proposals for Medi‑Cal could be viewed as supplanting General Fund resources and identify the relevant case law. We conclude by describing some trade‑offs for the Legislature to consider in allocating the Proposition 56 revenues.


Report

Volatility of the Personal Income Tax Base

February 8, 2017 - From 1990 to 2014, personal income in California grew fairly consistently, with limited volatility. On the other hand, California's personal income tax (PIT) base was much more volatile. This is because (1) some of the more stable pieces of personal income are not taxed under California's PIT and (2) the PIT tax base includes capital gains, which are extremely volatile and are not counted as part of personal income in federal statistics. This brief examines the volatility of the PIT tax base, one important element of the PIT's overall volatility in California. (This brief does not focus on other reasons for PIT volatility, such as California's PIT rate structure, in which high-income Californians pay a bigger fraction of their income than lower- and middle-income Californians.)


Handout

Technology Transfer Agreements and California’s Sales Tax

January 30, 2017 - Presented to: Assembly Revenue and Taxation Committee


Report

Income Mobility in California Across Generations

January 4, 2017 - In this report, we analyze intergenerational income mobility in California—the extent to which children attain higher (or lower) incomes than their parents. We find that California children have somewhat higher rates of income mobility than their peers in other states. The report’s findings suggest this is the result of their parents’ and their own characteristics, not because growing up in California results in more mobility.

Three short videos highlight some of the concepts and findings in the report.


Post

Statewide Minimum Wage Increasing in January

December 6, 2016 - A new law passed in 2016 (SB 3 [Leno]) will increase California’s statewide minimum wage over a period of several years. The first increase will occur on January 1, 2017. This budget and policy post is a supplement to our series on the California Economy and Taxes blog, where we describe California's low-wage workers and highlight the parts of the state with local minimum wages higher than the statewide minimum wage in 2017.

(Updated 12/21/2016 to include Los Altos.)


Report

California’s First Film Tax Credit Program

September 29, 2016 -

In this report, as required by law, we evaluate the economic effects and the administration of the first film tax credit program passed in 2009. We find that about one–third of the film and television projects receiving incentives under this program would probably have been made in California anyway. We suspect that this level of “windfall benefits” to some credit recipients may be low compared to other tax credits, which would suggest that the first film tax credit program targeted the types of production vulnerable to being filmed outside the state relatively well.

Also see these four short videos that highlight findings from this report.


Report

Common Claims About Proposition 13

September 19, 2016 -

Proposition 13 was a landmark decision by California’s voters in June 1978 to limit property taxes. Today, there are many questions about the impacts of these changes. This report examines some of these questions and which of them can be answered by the data available.

Also see the companion videos for this report.


Report

Community Development Financial Institution (CDFI) Tax Credit

June 30, 2016 - This report is in response to Chapter 608 of 2013 (AB 32, J. Pérez), which requires our office to evaluate the effectiveness of the tax credits allowed for qualified investments in community development financial institutions (CDFIs), with a focus on employment in low-to-moderate income and rural areas, and on the benefits of these tax credits to low-to-moderate income and rural persons.


Handout

Tax Extension to Fund Education and Healthcare. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.

June 29, 2016 - Presented to Assembly Budget Committee, Assembly Education Committee, Senate Budget and Fiscal Review Committee


Handout

Cigarette Tax Initiative

June 14, 2016 - Presented to: Assembly Health Committee Assembly Revenue and Taxation Committee Senate Health Committee