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May 2023

Proposition 98 Overview

LAO May Outlook Estimates of Proposition 98 Guarantee

Dollars in Millions

  2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27
Minimum Guarantee          
General Fund $75,623 $76,469a $79,982 $82,289 $89,149
Local property tax 29,292 30,854 31,881 33,245 34,823
   Totals $104,916 $107,324 $111,863 $115,534 $123,972
Change From Prior Year          
General Fund -$8,130 $846 $3,512 $2,308 $6,860
   Percent change -9.7% 1.1% 4.6% 2.9% 8.3%
Local property tax $2,492 $1,562 $1,027 $1,363 $1,578
   Percent change 9.3% 5.3% 3.3% 4.3% 4.7%
Total guarantee -$5,638 $2,408 $4,539 $3,671 $8,438
   Percent change -5.1% 2.3% 4.2% 3.3% 7.3%
Inputs          
General Fund Tax Revenueb $197,718 $198,545 $203,827 $207,623 $224,932
K-12 average daily attendance 5,403,735 5,407,722 5,402,503 5,426,897 5,405,557
Growth Rates          
K-12 average daily attendance 1.0% 0.1% -0.1% 0.5% -0.4%
Per capita personal income (Test 2) 7.6% 4.4% 2.8% 3.5% 5.8%
Per capita General Fund (Test 3)c -9.3% 1.3% 3.8% 3.5% 10.2%
Operative Test 1 1 1 1 1
Proposition 98 Reserve          
Deposit (+) or withdrawal (‑) $514 $0 $0 $105 $1,771
Balance 8,655 8,655 8,655 8,760 10,531
           
a Excludes supplemental payment associated with Proposition 28 (2022).   
b Excludes nontax revenues and transfers, which do not affect the calculation of the guarantee.  
c As set forth in the State Constitution, reflects change in per capita General Fund plus 0.5 percent.  
Note: No maintenance factor is created or paid over the period.