January 13, 2024 - On January 10, 2024, Governor Newsom presented his proposed state budget to the California Legislature. In this report, we provide a brief summary of the Governor’s budget based on our initial review as of January 12. In the coming weeks, we will analyze the plan in more detail and release many additional issue-specific budget analyses.
May 23, 2023 - This brief presents our office’s independent assessment of the condition of the state General Fund budget through 2026‑27 under our forecast of revenues and spending, assuming the Governor’s May Revision policies were adopted.
December 7, 2023 - Each year, our office publishes the Fiscal Outlook in anticipation of the upcoming budget season. The goal of this report is to give the Legislature our independent estimates and analysis of the state’s budget condition as lawmakers begin planning the 2024-25 budget.
May 17, 2024 - On May 14, 2024, Governor Newsom presented a revised state budget proposal to the Legislature. This annual proposed revised budget is referred to as the May Revision. In this brief, we provide a summary of and comments on the Governor’s revised budget, focusing on the overall condition and structure of the state General Fund—the budget’s main operating account.
May 24, 2024 - Presented to: California Society of Municipal Analysts
September 6, 2024 - Each year, our office publishes the California Spending Plan to summarize the annual state budget. This publication provides an overview of the 2024‑25 Budget Act, gives a brief description of how the budget process unfolded, and then highlights major features of the budget approved by the Legislature and signed by the Governor. All figures in this publication reflect actions taken through early July 2024, but we have updated the narrative to reflect actions taken later in the legislative session.
November 20, 2024 - In this report, we provide our estimates of the guarantee and analyze the implications for school and community college budgeting.
January 13, 2023 - On January 10, 2023, Governor Newsom presented his proposed state budget to the Legislature. In this report, we provide a brief summary of the proposed budget based on our initial review. In the coming weeks, we will analyze the plan in more detail and release several additional budget analyses.
December 15, 2022 - Persistent high inflation presents federal and state policymakers with an economic problem not seen in roughly four decades. In fact, during much of the past 15-year period, inflation not only was subdued, it consistently ran below the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed’s) target of 2 percent. Chronically below-target inflation eventually prompted the Fed in August 2020 to adjust its policy framework to combat this tendency. Not long after, however, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation trends and the Fed’s orientation to them began to reverse. Once it emerged, inflation accelerated throughout 2021 and has remained elevated this year with as yet indeterminate signs of abating.
November 16, 2022 - Our annual Fiscal Outlook publication gives our office’s independent assessment of the California state budget condition for the upcoming fiscal year and over the longer term. In this report, we anticipate the state will have a $24 billion budget problem to solve in the upcoming fiscal year and operating deficits declining from $17 billion to $8 billion over the multiyear period. The goal of this report is to help the Legislature begin crafting the 2023‑24 budget. Our analysis relies on specific assumptions about the future of the state economy, its revenues, and its expenditures. Consequently, our estimates are not definitive, but rather reflect our best guidance to the Legislature based on our professional assessments as of November 2022.
Update (11/22/22): The original version of this report identified a $25 billion—instead of a $24 billion—budget problem, which reflected an error in the way we accounted for student housing grant program funding.
November 14, 2002 - For the second year in a row, the state faces a budget problem in excess of $20 billion. Our updated forecast indicates the following. Current Year: California will end the 2002-03 fiscal year with a General Fund deficit of $6.1 billion. Budget Year: The 2003-04 budget faces a cumulative year-end deficit of $21.1 billion, absent corrective actions. However, if California's economic performance continues to lag the shortfall could easily be several billion dollars higher. Beyond the Budget Year: Over the longer term, the state will face annual operating deficits of between roughly $12 billion and $16 billion per year.
February 15, 2023 - This brief provides our current assessment of the scale of the coming budget problems under the Governor’s budget proposals. We also provide our guidance to the Legislature about how to address these shortfalls given current economic conditions.