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November 15, 2000 - California is in the midst of an extraordinary economic and revenue boom. We project that in 2000-01 the State of California's General Fund will end with a reserve of nearly $6.9 billion—up sharply from the $1.8 billion assumed in June when the budget was adopted. In 2001-02, assuming current-law spending and tax policies, we forecast that revenues would exceed expenditures by $3.4 billion, bringing the cumulative reserve to $10.3 billion. We suggest that the $6.9 billion reserve carried into the budget year from 2000-01 be used primarily for one-time purposes; the $3.4 billion annual operating surplus would be available for ongoing purposes.
October 2, 2000 - A Handout presented on September 29, 2000, to Senate Committee on Revenue and Taxation, Senate Committee on Environmental Quality, and Assembly Committee on Revenue and Taxation.
August 10, 2000 - In recent decades the distribution of adjusted gross income reported on California tax returns has shifted significantly, with the share attributable to the top 20 percent of returns rising and that for the bottom 80 percent falling. We examine the changes in California's income distribution and their causes.
April 6, 2000 - General Fund revenues have been accumulating at a dramatic pace in early 2000. If current strong trends continue through the end of the year, revenues in 1999-00 will exceed the administration's January budget forecast by more than $4 billion and our own February estimate by $2 billion. Our updated forecast of the state's fiscal condition for the current and budget years will be published following the May Revision. (Cal Update)
February 17, 2000 - We recommend that the Legislature not extend the sunset of the Property Tax Administration Loan Program and instead consider alternatives that would provide a long-term structural improvement to the property tax system.
February 17, 2000 - Budget Forecast for Special Funds Revenues 2000-01
February 17, 2000 - LAO's General Fund Revenue Outlook 2000-01
January 31, 2000 - The growth of the Internet raises many tax policy issues. These include: How can we ensure that the tax system is fair without interfering with the Internet's evolution? How will the Internet's growth affect government tax bases? We examine these and other Internet-related tax issues in detail, and recommend that California approach them by pursuing multistate tax agreements and consider undertaking a comprehensive review of telecommunication related levies.
December 15, 1999 - Nationally, over 40 percent of married couples currently incur the marriage penalty, which averages about $1,400 per couple. However, even more couples--over 50 percent--receive federal marriage bonuses, totaling several billion dollars more than the marriage penalties. While the likelihood of Californians facing federal marriage penalties is less than nationally, Californians pay a disproportionately large share of such penalties.
November 17, 1999 - California's fiscal fortunes have again significantly exceeded expectations, due largely to its robust economic performance and the accompanying increases in General Fund revenues. We project that continued revenue growth will trigger all of the vehicle license fee (VLF) reductions previously agreed to, enable full funding of all current-law programs, and produce significant budgetary reserves in the next several years.