Staff
Chas Alamo
(916) 319-8357
Personal Income Tax, Employment, and Labor Law
Ann Hollingshead
(916) 319-8305
State Budget and Federal Funding
Nick Schroeder
(916) 319-8314
Public Employment, CalPERS, Elections, Veterans Affairs
Paul Steenhausen
(916) 319-8303
Local Government, Housing, and Homelessness
Brian Uhler
(916) 319-8328
Deputy Legislative Analyst: Economy, Taxes, and Labor
Alex Bentz
(916) 319-8312
Property Taxes, Bonds, and the Economy
Rowan Isaaks
(916) 319-8362
Corporation Tax and Economic Development
Seth Kerstein
(916) 319-8365
Sales and Excise Taxes and Demographics


Publications

Economy and Taxes

To browse all LAO publications, visit our Publications page.



Other

Options for Addressing the State's Fiscal Problems

February 20, 2002 - We estimate that the state will need to identify $5 billion in additional budget solutions beyond those proposed by the administration. This compendium contains more than 100 expenditure reduction/revenue raising options to help the Legislature address this larger shortfall. In better fiscal times we would not necessarily put such options on the table, however we offer them in the context of a need to solve a growing budget shortfall.


Report

Addressing the State's Fiscal Problem

December 19, 2001 - Due to weak economic and revenue performance, California faces a $12.4 billion budget shortfall in 2002-03. We identify several key budget-balancing principles and strategies and identify specific spending and revenue options for implementing these strategies. Finally, we review the administration's initial proposals to address the current-year shortfall and offer additional current-year options for the Legislature to consider.


Report

California's Fiscal Outlook: LAO Projections, 2001-02 Through 2006-07

November 14, 2001 - California will end 2001-02 with a deficit of $4.5 billion, while the 2002-03 budget year faces a shortfall of $12.4 billion and potentially even more if the recovery we are assuming for next spring is delayed. Annual budget shortfalls will persist well beyond 2002-03 absent corrective actions. Thus substantial ongoing expenditure cuts and/or revenue augmentations are required to bring the budget back into balance.


Report

The Power Crisis is the Key "Wild Card" in the LAO Economic Outlook

February 21, 2001 - The most pressing challenge currently facing the state relates to its electricity crisis, especially in light of the multiplicity of ways that energy affects the economy and ultimately the state's finances.


Report

The 2001-02 Budget: Perspectives and Issues

February 21, 2001 - Perspectives on the state's fiscal condition and the budget proposed by the Governor for 2000-01.


Report

Perspectives on State Revenues 2001-02

February 21, 2001 - Strong economic growth through the end of 2000 is significantly boosting revenues in the current year. However, an economic slowdown in 2001 will depress revenues in the budget year.


Report

Perspectives on the Economy and Demographics 2001-02

February 21, 2001 - Our "bottom line" budget estimates are similar to the administration's. Due to uncertainty related to the state's electricity crisis and to the very unsettled national and state economic environment the Legislature should withhold consideration of the Governor's $2.3 billion of one-time proposals outside of the energy area until May.


Report

State Fiscal Picture 2001-02

February 21, 2001 - Our "bottom line" budget estimates are similar to the administration's. Due to uncertainty related to the state's electricity crisis and to the very unsettled national and state economic environment the Legislature should withhold consideration of the Governor's $2.3 billion of one-time proposals outside of the energy area until May.


Report

Sales Taxation Of Bunker Fuel

January 25, 2001 - Based on our findings, we recommend that the Legislature remove the existing sunset for the current partial Sales and Use Tax (SUT) exemption for bunker fuel sales, and make the exemption permanent. This action would result in treating bunker fuel sales similarly to other export sales and place California ports on par with other U.S. out-of-state ports. We also recommend that the Legislature review the appropriateness of current SUT treatment of fuel sales to common carriers other than vessels, including air and rail common carriers.


Other

California's Tax System: A Primer

January 18, 2001 - The purpose of this primer is to address, in a highly graphical format, various questions, including: What are the different types of taxes upon which California relies? What is their relative importance, and how have they evolved over time? How large a "burden" do these taxes impose on Californians and how is this burden distributed? What types of policy issues are associated with the current tax structure?


Report

California's Fiscal Outlook: LAO Projections 2000-01 Through 2005-06

November 15, 2000 - California is in the midst of an extraordinary economic and revenue boom. We project that in 2000-01 the State of California's General Fund will end with a reserve of nearly $6.9 billion—up sharply from the $1.8 billion assumed in June when the budget was adopted. In 2001-02, assuming current-law spending and tax policies, we forecast that revenues would exceed expenditures by $3.4 billion, bringing the cumulative reserve to $10.3 billion. We suggest that the $6.9 billion reserve carried into the budget year from 2000-01 be used primarily for one-time purposes; the $3.4 billion annual operating surplus would be available for ongoing purposes.


Handout

An Overview of Proposition 37

October 2, 2000 - A Handout presented on September 29, 2000, to Senate Committee on Revenue and Taxation, Senate Committee on Environmental Quality, and Assembly Committee on Revenue and Taxation.


Report

California's Changing Income Distribution

August 10, 2000 - In recent decades the distribution of adjusted gross income reported on California tax returns has shifted significantly, with the share attributable to the top 20 percent of returns rising and that for the bottom 80 percent falling. We examine the changes in California's income distribution and their causes.


Presentation

Budget, Taxes, and Spending

May 5, 2000 - A slide presentation composed of graphics highlighting trends in several areas including demographics, California's economy, state expenditures and revenues, and taxation.


Report

California's Extraordinary Revenue Developments

April 6, 2000 - General Fund revenues have been accumulating at a dramatic pace in early 2000. If current strong trends continue through the end of the year, revenues in 1999-00 will exceed the administration's January budget forecast by more than $4 billion and our own February estimate by $2 billion. Our updated forecast of the state's fiscal condition for the current and budget years will be published following the May Revision. (Cal Update)