Spring 2020

Proposition 98 Overview

LAO Estimates of Proposition 98 Guarantee Under U-Shaped Scenario

Dollars in Millions

  2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24
Minimum Guarantee          
General Fund $53,370 $48,031 $49,363 $53,371 $56,360
Local property tax 24,958 25,853 26,602 27,449 28,356
   Totals $78,328 $73,884 $75,965 $80,821 $84,716
           
Change in General Fund From Prior Year     
Amount -$1,124 -$5,339 $1,333 $4,008 $2,989
Percent -2.1% -10.0% 2.8% 8.1% 5.6%
Change in Property Tax From Prior Year     
Amount $943 $895 $749 $847 $907
Percent 3.9% 3.6% 2.9% 3.2% 3.3%
Change in Guarantee From Prior Year     
Amount -$181 -$4,444 $2,081 $4,855 $3,895
Percent -0.2% -5.7% 2.8% 6.4% 4.8%
           
Inputs          
General Fund taxesa $140,702 $126,453 $129,959 $140,499 $148,222
K-12 average daily attendance 5,882,342 5,861,182 5,810,070 5,785,551 5,738,141
           
Growth Factors          
Per capita personal income 3.9% 3.7% -5.0% 3.3% 5.6%
Per capita General Fundb -1.2% -9.9% 3.4% 8.1% 5.5%
K-12 average daily attendance -0.6% -0.4% -0.9% -0.4% -0.8%
           
Outcomes          
Proposition 98 operative "test" 1 1 1 1 1
Maintenance factor:          
   Amount created/paid (+/-) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
   Amount outstanding 0 0 0 0 0
Proposition 98 Reserve:          
   Deposit/withdrawal (+/-) $0 $0 $245 $655 $603
   Balance 0 0 245 899 1,502
           
a Reflects General Fund revenue that affects the calculation of the minimum guarantee.    
b Reflects per capita General Fund plus 0.5 percent (one of the Test 3 factors).