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February 23, 2005 - Presented to the Assembly Budget Subcommittee No. 3 on Resources on February 23, 2005.
February 23, 2005 - Presented to Senate Budget and Fiscal Review Subcommittee No. 3
February 23, 2005 - This handout consists of charts used at the press conference for the presentation of the 2005-06 Perspectives and Issues.
February 22, 2005 - Presented to the Assembly Higher Education Committee on February 22, 2005.
February 22, 2005 - The budget proposes total state expenditures of $109 billion in 2005-06. This includes $85.7 billion from the General Fund (up 4.2 percent from the current year) and $23.3 billion from special funds (up 5.3 percent from the current year). The overall General Fund spending growth rate reflects (1) changes in caseloads and utilization for major programs; (2) the impacts of the Governor's savings proposals; and (3) the impacts of numerous other special factors, such as one-time savings in the 2004-05 budget. The proposal includes about $3.5 billion in new budgetary borrowing related primarily to deficit-financing bonds, a judgment bond, and Proposition 42 suspension. This brings the total amount of budgetary borrowing outstanding to about $29 billion as of the end of 2005-06.
February 22, 2005 - The current strength in the economy is translating into solid growth in receipts from the state's taxes—particularly the corporate tax and personal income tax. Recent cash receipts trends have been even stronger than anticipated in the Governor's budget, mainly because of strong 2004 year-end collections from the personal income tax and corporation tax. Based largely on these positive trends, we project that General Fund revenues will exceed the budget forecast by $1.4 billion in the current year and $765 million in the budget year.
February 22, 2005 - The California economy is expanding at a healthy pace in early 2005, as evidenced by real estate construction, exports, company reports of sales and profits, and business-related tax receipts. The one area of concern remains jobs, which are lagging due to intense focus on cost cutting and efficiencies. We project the California economic expansion to continue at a moderate pace, with personal income expanding by roughly 5.6 percent and jobs growing 1.5 percent annually during the next two years.
February 22, 2005 - The Legislature has an important budget opportunity. We project that revenues are $2.2 billion higher (for the current and budget years combined) than reflected in the Governor's budget. This, combined with the magnitude of ongoing solutions proposed in the budget plan, would result in a balanced 2005-06 budget with a solid reserve. However, the price of inaction is significant. Without the adoption of ongoing solutions of the magnitude offered by the budget plan, the 2005-06 budget would be precariously balanced and the state would experience major budget shortfalls in 2006-07 and beyond. These shortfalls would be close to $10 billion.
February 22, 2005 - The Legislature has an important budget opportunity. We project that revenues are $2.2 billion higher (for the current and budget years combined) than reflected in the Governor's budget. This, combined with the magnitude of ongoing solutions proposed in the budget plan, would result in a balanced 2005-06 budget with a solid reserve. However, the price of inaction is significant. Without the adoption of ongoing solutions of the magnitude offered by the budget plan, the 2005-06 budget would be precariously balanced and the state would experience major budget shortfalls in 2006-07 and beyond. These shortfalls would be close to $10 billion.
February 22, 2005 - The Governor has proposed constitutional reforms involving several areas of the budget—including Proposition 98 K-14 education funding, the budget process, and transportation. The Governor has indicated that the main purpose of the reforms is to deal with "autopilot spending" and instill discipline in future budgets. We believe, however, that the administration's specific proposals work in exactly the opposite direction. That is, they would put more spending on autopilot and make it more difficult to balance future budgets in a rational way. The changes would also result in a diminution of legislative authority.
February 22, 2005 - California “defined benefit” pensions in the public sector raise certain benefits and cost issues. The Governor proposes shifting all new public sector employees to “defined contribution” plans to address the high cost of the current system. Defined contribution plans address concerns with defined benefit pensions, but also introduce issues of their own. The Legislature could also address the benefits and cost concerns of current retirement plans within the existing defined benefit structure or with other pension plan alternatives.
February 22, 2005 - The administration proposes to suspend $1.3 billion in Proposition 42 transportation funding and to reduce the General Fund's commitment to repay transportation loans in the near term. This would help the General Fund condition but restrict already limited transportation funding and increase near-term funding uncertainty. The administration also proposes changing the State Constitution to protect transportation funding in the long run by preventing future suspensions of Proposition 42. We recommend that the administration provide information to the Legislature that would allow it to determine (1) the effect of the Governor's proposals on the size of the transportation program and (2) TCRP project funding requirements in 2005-06. In order to provide long-term transportation funding stability while freeing up General Fund revenue for other purposes, we continue to recommend (1) the repeal of Proposition 42, (2) an increase of the gas tax to generate an amount of funding equivalent to Proposition 42, and (3) adjusting the gas tax for inflation.
February 22, 2005 - Two of the most important water policy issues facing the state today are how to address what has been characterized by the administration as a “crisis” in flood management and how to finance the $8.1 billion CALFED Bay-Delta Program (CALFED). We analyze a Department of Water Resources White Paper recently submitted to the Legislature on addressing the state’s flood management challenges and make recommendations for legislative action. We also analyze a ten-year finance plan for CALFED that the budget indicates will be incorporated in the Governor’s May Revision. We find that the finance plan’s revenue assumptions may be unrealistic. As a result, the Legislature will need to establish its expenditure priorities so that the program can be “right sized” consistent with those priorities.