We discuss the ways that economic assumptions affect state budget analyses and how policy makers and others should consider these assumptions.
We have now received preliminary data from all the tax agencies concerning April 2016 collections of the personal income tax, the sales and use tax, and the corporation tax. These are the state General Fund's "Big Three" revenue sources.
We have received preliminary information from the state's tax agencies on February 2016 collections of the California's "Big Three" state General Fund taxes.
As part of the annual budget development process, the administration provides us with its current estimates of Proposition 30 revenues through 2018-19. 2018-19 is the last fiscal year affected by the Proposition 30 income tax increases for high-income Californians.
We discuss a particular formula used in the state budget related to personal income growth. The administration's January estimate of this formula for the 2016-17 state budget is likely too low.
We have received data on January 2015 state revenue collections from California's tax agencies.
Our review of the best available evidence suggests that property tax collections in 2015-16 and 2016-17 will be higher than the administration assumes.
We discuss the distinctions between our personal income and personal income tax projections.
Our Fiscal Outlook assumes continued growth in assessed values.
The expiration of the Proposition 30 sales tax increase affects the sales tax projections in our new Fiscal Outlook publication.
In conjunction with the November 2015 edition of our Fiscal Outlook, we update our estimates for the revenue effects of Proposition 30 (2012).