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Inflation Tracker May 17, 2024
April data suggests a modest reversal of the recent uptrend in inflation. However, inflation remains above the pre-pandemic norm. Prices in California largely have tracked with this national trend.
Updated "Big Three" Revenue Outlook May 2, 2024
Revenues Likely to Fall Below Governor’s Budget Assumptions. Our forecast continues to suggest there is significant downside risk to state revenues relative to the Governor’s Budget. Specifically, our forecast is $19 billion below the Governor’s Budget across the 2022-23 to 2024-25 budget window. That being said, there is still significant uncertainty about how much revenue the state ultimately will collect. It is entirely possible that revenues could end up $8 billion higher or lower than our estimate for 2023-24 and $20 billion higher or lower for 2024-25.
Monthly Jobs Report May 2, 2024
Preliminary reporting from California businesses suggest the state added 28,300 jobs in March, while the February figure was revised downward to reflect larger job losses. Although businesses continue to report modest hiring, an alternative measure of the state's labor market has shown monthly job losses since last summer. The state's unemployment rate remained at 5.3 percent. The "Sahm rule," a real-time recession indicator that first triggered a year ago, continues to signal an economic downturn.
California Housing Affordability Tracker (April 2024) April 30, 2024
Our post provides an updated snapshot of housing affordability in California. Over the last few years, we have seen a rapid increase in California housing costs, led by the dramatic increase in the costs of purchasing a home. Monthly costs for a newly purchased home are about $2,500 higher than they were just a few years ago. Annual income needed to qualify for a typical home is about $235,000—over 2 times higher than median household income (about $85,000). Further, the annual income needed to qualify for a more affordable "bottom-tier" home is over 50 percent higher than the median income.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: March 2024 April 15, 2024
U.S. retail sales have grown 0.8 percent over the last 3 months and 4 percent over the last 12 months. Retail sales growth has outpaced inflation over the last 12 months, but not over the last 3 months.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: February 2024 March 14, 2024
U.S. retail sales have dropped 0.4 percent over the last 3 months and grown 1.5 percent over the last 12 months. The 12-month growth rate was below the rate of inflation.
Annual Revision Shows State Added Few Jobs Last Year March 13, 2024
Each year, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revises the state's jobs number to match actual payroll records from businesses. The latest revision lowered its count of California jobs by 1.5 percent. The corrected data show that the state added just 50,000 jobs between September 2022 and September 2023, while preliminary monthly reports had showed the labor market growing by more than 300,000 jobs.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: January 2024 February 15, 2024
U.S. retail sales have dropped 0.5 percent over the last 3 months and grown 0.6 percent over the last 12 months. The 12-month growth rate was well below the rate of inflation.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: December 2023 January 17, 2024
U.S. retail sales have grown 0.7 percent over the last 3 months and 5.6 percent over the last 12 months. Both of these growth rates outpaced inflation.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: November 2023 December 14, 2023
U.S. retail sales have grown 0.9 percent over the last 3 months and 4.1 percent over the last 12 months. Both of these growth rates outpaced inflation.
Newest Early Revision Suggests State Saw No Job Gains Over 9-month Period December 14, 2023
A newly released "early benchmark" of the official state jobs figures shows that payroll jobs remained essentially flat from September 2022 through June 2023, whereas the soon-to-be-revised official state tally showed growth of 2.1 percent over that period. This amounts to a 9-month job gain of just 6k, compared to the unbenched of 282k jobs.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: October 2023 November 15, 2023
U.S. retail sales have grown 1.5 percent over the last 3 months and 2.5 percent over the last 12 months. Retail sales growth has outpaced inflation over the last 3 months, but not over the last 12 months.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: September 2023 October 17, 2023
U.S. retail sales have grown 2.1 percent over the last 3 months and 3.8 percent over the last 12 months. Retail sales growth has well outpaced inflation over the last 3 months, but not over the last 12 months.
Uptick in Unemployment Rate Triggered a Recession Indicator October 3, 2023
The recent uptick in the unemployment rate, from 3.8 percent to 4.6 percent, has triggered a state version of the "Sahm Rule," a real-time indicator of the start of an economic downturn.
Did California Enter a Recession Last Fall? October 3, 2023
While recessions are not formally defined for state economies, economic data for the fourth quarter of 2022 and first quarter of 2023 appear consistent with California experiencing a mild recession. The apparent start of a recession in California last fall helps explain why the state faced a revenue shortfall in its most recent budget. How much the economy will continue to dampen the state's fiscal picture moving forward is unclear. However, the threat that the recent slowdown could persist will be a significant risk for the foreseeable future.