Summary of LAO Findings and Recommendations on the 2010-11 Budget

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	Program	Budget Issue	LAO Finding Or Recommendation	Last Updated
Go Back	Department of Health Care Services, Medi-Cal	Medi-Cal 2010-11 caseload estimate seems reasonable.	Adopt the Governor's proposed May Revision 2010-11 caseload estimate for the Medi-Cal Program.	5-20-10

Detailed Narrative
Our review of the most recent available enrollment data indicates that the Medi-Cal May Revision caseload estimate for 2010-11 is reasonable. However, there is uncertainty in the caseload estimates given the potential impact of the recently enacted federal Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010 (PPACA) on Medi-Cal caseload. The PPACA would require all individuals to maintain health insurance coverage beginning in January 2014. The increased awareness of this requirement may prompt some individuals that are currently eligible for Medi-Cal, but not enrolled, to enroll in Medi-Cal at an earlier date including in 2010-11. We estimate that more than 600,000 individuals are currently eligible, but not enrolled. In addition, the rate at which the economy will recover is unknown and will have an impact on the growth of caseload in Medi-Cal. A rapid recovery would be likely to moderate caseload growth somewhat, while a delayed recovery could result in caseload continuing to grow at a somewhat greater rate than it has during periods of economic stability.

Detailed Narrative

Our review of the most recent available enrollment data indicates that the Medi-Cal May Revision caseload estimate for 2010-11 is reasonable. However, there is uncertainty in the caseload estimates given the potential impact of the recently enacted federal Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010 (PPACA) on Medi-Cal caseload. The PPACA would require all individuals to maintain health insurance coverage beginning in January 2014. The increased awareness of this requirement may prompt some individuals that are currently eligible for Medi-Cal, but not enrolled, to enroll in Medi-Cal at an earlier date including in 2010-11. We estimate that more than 600,000 individuals are currently eligible, but not enrolled. In addition, the rate at which the economy will recover is unknown and will have an impact on the growth of caseload in Medi-Cal. A rapid recovery would be likely to moderate caseload growth somewhat, while a delayed recovery could result in caseload continuing to grow at a somewhat greater rate than it has during periods of economic stability.