|Budget Issue:||May Revision caseload estimate.|
|Program:||Healthy Families Program|
|Finding or Recommendation:||We recommend no caseload adjustment at this time.|
Governor's Proposal. The MRMIB projects a June 2010 caseload estimate of 909,648 and a June 2011 caseload estimate of 964,864 for the HFP. The budget-year caseload estimate is higher than that proposed in January, since the May Revision proposal reflects the administration’s withdrawal of a proposal to reduce income eligibility for the HFP to 200 percent of the FPL. However, caseload trends over the current and budget years for all income groups are adjusted significantly downward from January caseload trends, due to lower-than-expected enrollment since the program was opened to new enrollment in September 2009 after two months of closure.
Analyst’s Comment. We believe there is still some level of uncertainty regarding the caseload trajectory of the program in the budget year due to the state of the economy and unpredictable behavioral responses to various past and proposed policy changes in the HFP. However, we find the caseload projections for the both the current year and the budget year reasonable.
Analyst’s Recommendation. We recommend no caseload adjustment at this time.