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February 21, 2007 - Our annual detailed examination of the Budget Bill based on the Governor's Budget. It includes hundreds of findings and recommendations related to education, health and social services, criminal justice, transportation, resources, capital outlay, information technology, and local government.
February 21, 2007 - Analysis of the 2007-08 Budget Bill, Capital Outlay Chapter
February 21, 2007 - We estimate that the Governor’s budget plan would result in 2007-08 expenditures exceeding revenues by $2.6 billion. This would leave the state with a $726 million year-end deficit, compared to the Governor’s January 10th estimate of a $2.1 billion positive reserve. In addition, the state would face operating deficits of $3.4 billion in 2008-09, $2.5 billion in 2009-10, and $1.4 billion in 2010-11. Thus, additional solutions will be needed to bring the budget into balance, such as budgetary savings, enhanced resources, or reduced supplemental payments toward paying off budgetary debt. It will also be important to avoid raising ongoing budget commitments without identifying alternative reductions or new revenues to pay for them.
February 21, 2007 - Based on our revenue and expenditure projections, we estimate that the adoption of the Governor’s budget plan would result in a $726 million deficit in 2007-08 (compared to the administration’s January 10th estimate of a $2.1 billion reserve). The difference in these numbers is due principally to our lower estimates of revenue in both the current and budget years, but also due to higher expenditure estimates, primarily related to Proposition 98. Adoption of the plan would also leave the state with large operating shortfalls in future years, unless additional corrective actions are taken. Thus, the Legislature will face major challenges in crafting a budget for the coming year. We believe that the primary focus should be on finding additional budget savings and/or revenues to address the near- and longer-term shortfalls. Should these solutions be insufficient to cover the full magnitude of the budget shortfall, however, the state can also achieve some near-term savings by reducing the amount of supplemental repayments on deficit-financing bonds relative to the $1.6 billion proposed in the budget.
February 21, 2007 - For 2007, like most other economists at this time, we forecast that growth will continue but be modest for the nation and California. For the year as whole, 2007 growth will be somewhat less than it was in 2006, with the first half of the year the weakest. Throughout the year, however, growth should accelerate, as the housing sector stabilizes, especially in the second half of 2007. We expect that the state’s performance will generally be similar to the nation’s.
February 21, 2007 - Following two years of major increases, it appears that revenue growth is slowing sharply in 2006-07, reflecting the impacts of a more moderate economic expansion and a dip in income from capital gains. The budget assumes that revenue growth will revive somewhat in 2007-08, led by an improving economy beginning later this year. For the current and budget years combined, we are estimating that General Fund revenues will fall below the budget forecast by $2 billion.
February 21, 2007 - We discuss several of the most significant spending proposals in the budget. For more information on these spending proposals, and our findings and recommendations concerning them, please see our analysis of the appropriate department or program in the Analysis of the 2007-08 Budget Bill, available February 22st, 2007.
February 21, 2007 - The Governor’s budget proposes total spending in 2007-08 of $130.8 billion, including $103.1 billion from the state’s General Fund and $27.7 billion from its special funds. This total budget-year spending is $4.2 billion higher than current-year spending—an increase of 3.3 percent. Of total budget-year spending, General Fund spending accounts for about 80 percent. This proposed spending level translates into $3,430 for every man, woman, and child in California, or $358 million per day.
February 21, 2007 - This document summarizes and provides links to the major findings in the 2007-08 Analysis of the Budget Bill and Perspectives and Issues. (Video Summary)
February 15, 2007 - Presented to the Senate Health Committee, Hon. Sheila Kuehl, Chair